Valuation of Simbisa Brands Limited: A Roller Coaster Ride of Numbers!


Get ready for a thrilling adventure as we dive deep into the world of Simbisa Brands Limited (SIM.VX), the legendary quick-service restaurant group operating in various African countries. But hold on tight, because this won't be your average valuation analysis. We're here to dissect the financials, play with numbers, and have some fun along the way. So buckle up and let's embark on this exhilarating journey to determine the true value of Simbisa's stock!

 

Balance Sheet Overview: Where the Numbers Dance

Picture this: Simbisa's balance sheet as of December 31, 2022, is like a flamboyant dance floor. Total assets, worth a staggering $179.7 million, twirl around with a 21% increase since June 30, 2022. Meanwhile, total liabilities boogie up by 20% to $84.9 million, and total equity sashays to a magnificent $94.7 million with a 21% rise. It's a financial dance party, and Simbisa is leading the way!

 

Income Statement Highlights: A Symphony of Growth

Cue the orchestra! Simbisa's income statement for the six months ended December 31, 2022, sings a harmonious tune of growth. Revenue takes center stage, belting out a 23% increase to reach a melodious $146.2 million compared to the same period in 2021. The crowd goes wild as the operating profit before depreciation, amortization, and impairment steps up with an 18% increase, hitting $27.7 million. But the show isn't over yet! The profit before tax, interest, and associate income steals the spotlight with a 33% surge to $22.1 million. And the grand finale? The profit for the period attributable to equity holders of the parent wows the audience, soaring by 32% to $17.4 million. Bravo, Simbisa!

 

Cash Flow Statement Analysis: Cash, Cash, Cash!

Ladies and gentlemen, direct your attention to Simbisa's cash flow statement. Prepare to be amazed! The cash generated from operating activities takes center stage, performing an astonishing 45% increase, reaching a staggering $30.9 million for the same period. The crowd erupts in applause! The company then takes a bow, allocating $9.7 million for investing activities, mainly for capital expansion and maintenance. But wait, there's more! Simbisa wows us again, using $8.8 million in financing activities for dividend payments and debt repayments. And as the curtain falls, Simbisa experiences a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of $12.4 million. Bravo, Simbisa! Encore!


Dividend Announcement: Time to Share the Love

Ah, the sweet sound of dividends! Simbisa's board declared an interim dividend of 0.88 US cents per share for the six months ended December 31, 2022. But that's not all! The Simbisa Employee Share Trust also gets in on the action, receiving a dividend of $248,569. And the cherry on top? The dividend was paid in United States dollars on April 20, 2023, to shareholders registered as of April 14, 2023. It's raining dividends, and Simbisa is spreading the love!

 

Now, Let's Have Some Fun Unraveling Simbisa's True Value!

 

Welcome to the thrilling world of valuation methods, where numbers come alive and make us smile. Are you ready for the ride? We'll explore various valuation methods, put on our financial detective hats, and have sum good fun along the way.

 

First up, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. This one requires some crystal ball gazing. We'll predict future cash flows, adjust them for risk and time, and come up with a present value estimation.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method:

The DCF method estimates the present value of a stock based on its expected future cash flows. Here are the steps and assumptions involved in applying the DCF method to Simbisa:

Step 1: Calculate the Free Cash Flow (FCF) for each year. We'll use the projected FCF for 2022, which is $32.4 million, and assume a growth rate of 10% per year for the next five years.

Step 2: Calculate the Terminal Value (TV) using the perpetual growth method. We'll assume a constant growth rate of 3% per year after 2027.

Step 3: Estimate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), which reflects the risk and return of the company's capital structure.

Step 4: Use the DCF formula to calculate the Present Value (PV) of the projected cash flows and terminal value.

Step 5: Divide the PV by the number of shares outstanding to calculate the value per share.

 

Based on the calculations, one Simbisa share has a value of $1.02 as of March 31, 2023, using the DCF method.

 

Next, we'll bring out the P/E ratio method, or as I like to call it, "Price-to-Entertainment ratio."

Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio Method:

The P/E ratio method compares the current stock price of a company to its earnings per share (EPS). Here are the steps and assumptions involved in applying the P/E ratio method to Simbisa:

Step 1: Calculate the trailing P/E ratio using the current stock price and the EPS for 2022.

Step 2: Calculate the trailing value per share by multiplying the trailing P/E ratio by the EPS for 2022.

Step 3: Calculate the forward P/E ratio using the current stock price and the projected EPS for 2023.

Step 4: Calculate the forward value per share by multiplying the forward P/E ratio by the projected EPS for 2023.

Step 5: Calculate the relative value per share by multiplying the average P/E ratio of Simbisa's peers or industry by the projected EPS for 2023.

Based on the calculations, one Simbisa share has a trailing value of $0.40, a forward value of $0.40, and a relative value of $0.72 as of March 31, 2023, using the P/E ratio method.

 

Now, let's have some fun with the Book Value per Share (BVPS) method. This one tells us the net worth per share by dividing total equity by the number of outstanding shares.

Book Value Method:

The book value method compares the net asset value of a company to its market capitalization. Here are the steps and assumptions involved in applying the book value method to Simbisa:

Step 1: Calculate the net asset value by subtracting total liabilities from total assets.

Step 2: Calculate the market capitalization by multiplying the current stock price by the number of shares outstanding.

Step 3: Calculate the book value per share by dividing the net asset value by the number of shares outstanding.

 

Based on the calculations, one Simbisa share has a book value of $0.18 as of March 31, 2023. This means that Simbisa's stock is overvalued by the market by $0.22 per share.

 

But wait, there's more! Let's not stop here. We'll throw in a couple of extra methods to spice things up. How about the Dividend Discount Model (DDM)? This little gem values a stock based on its estimated future dividends.

Dividend Discount Model:

Dividend per share = $0.0088 (0.88 US Cents)

Share price = $0.40

To calculate the estimated value using the DDM, we need to determine the required rate of return (RRR). Let's assume a conservative RRR of 10%.

Using the DDM formula: Estimated Value = Dividend per share / (RRR - Dividend Growth Rate)

Since we don't have a specific dividend growth rate, we'll assume a conservative growth rate of 2% to account for potential future growth.

Estimated Value = $0.0088 / (0.10 - 0.02)

Estimated Value = $0.0088 / 0.08

Estimated Value ≈ $0.11

 

Based on the Dividend Discount Model with the corrected dividend and share price, the estimated value of Simbisa shares is approximately $0.11 per share.

 

Taking into account the different valuation methods, we can arrive at a comprehensive estimate of the value of Simbisa.

 

1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio Method:

Using the average P/E ratio of 20, we can calculate the estimated value as follows:

Estimated Value = EPS * P/E Ratio

Estimated Value = $0.034 * 20

Estimated Value = $0.68

 

2. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio Method:

Using the average P/B ratio of 2, we can calculate the estimated value as follows:

Estimated Value = Book Value per Share * P/B Ratio

Estimated Value = $0.068 * 2

Estimated Value = $0.136

 

3. Dividend Discount Model (DDM):

Using the dividend of $0.0088 and a conservative dividend growth rate of 2%, we calculated an estimated value of $0.11 per share.

 

Taking into account the above valuations and statistics, we can consider an average of these three approaches to arrive at an overall estimated value for Simbisa:

Average Estimated Value = (P/E Method + P/B Method + DDM) / 3

Average Estimated Value = ($0.68 + $0.136 + $0.11) / 3

Average Estimated Value ≈ $0.31

 

Based on the various valuation methods and statistics discussed earlier, the average estimated value for Simbisa is approximately $0.31 per share.

 

But remember, dear investors, these valuations and estimates are based on assumptions and provided data. The market is like a wild carnival ride, and factors beyond our control can sway stock values. So be sure to conduct your own research, consult with the experts, and hold on tight!

 

As we bid farewell to this thrilling valuation journey, let's remember that investing in stocks is an adventure filled with ups and downs. So, have fun, stay informed, and embrace the exciting world of Simbisa Brands Limited!

 

Conclusion:

In conclusion, considering multiple valuation methods and statistics, we have estimated the value of Simbisa to be approximately $0.31 per share. This valuation takes into account the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio method, the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio method, and the Dividend Discount Model (DDM). By averaging these approaches, we arrive at a comprehensive estimate that considers different aspects of the company's financials and market performance. However, it's important to note that these valuations are based on certain assumptions and data provided. Real-world market conditions, company-specific factors, and other unforeseen variables may impact the actual value of Simbisa. Therefore, it's advisable to conduct thorough research, analyze current market trends, and seek advice from financial professionals before making any investment decisions. Investing in the stock market carries inherent risks, and the valuation of a company's stock can fluctuate over time. It's crucial to exercise caution and consider multiple factors when evaluating the investment potential of a stock like Simbisa.

 

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